It’s Analyst Forecast Season

This week, we’ll begin our year-in-review as the analyst forecasts for 2025 start rolling in. We’ll balance those predictions by examining the volatility of the S&P 500 and the market’s historical performance. We’ll also continue our cryptocurrency conversation by considering it a speculative asset similar to gold while so much of it has no utility. We end with a historical look at markets in year 1 of presidential terms and how that data, coupled with the earnings variable, may predict a slight pullback.

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - It’s analysts’ prediction season [02:56] - Earnings are the big variable in forecasting [10:48] - Treating Bitcoin as a speculative asset similar to gold [13:19] - Many new cryptocurrencies are scammy and lack utility [19:08] - Why history tells us there could be a pullback in 2025

View Transcript

Links

Roche: The average gain in an up year for the stock market since 1928 is +21%. The average loss in a down year in that same timeframe was -13%. Ro: 22 eye-catching charts as we consider what's next for the stock market Factset Earnings Insight

Hedgeye: Fartcoin's market cap is now greater than 38% of all American publicly-traded companies.